The desert heat is rising as the ATP Qatar ExxonMobil Open takes center stage in Doha this week (February 16–21, 2026). With the tournament officially upgraded to an ATP 500 event, the draw is more stacked than ever, headlined by a potential "Dream Final" between the world's two brightest superstars: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
Following his historic Australian Open victory last month—which saw him become the youngest man to complete a Career Grand Slam—Alcaraz enters as the top seed. However, Sinner, the defending Nitto ATP Finals champion, is lurking on the opposite side of the bracket, hungry for revenge.
The Favorites: A "Sincaraz" Collision Course?
For many fans and analysts, the question isn't if Alcaraz and Sinner will reach the final, but who will be left standing when they get there.
Carlos Alcaraz (1st Seed): The Spaniard has been handed what many describe as a "favorable" path. He opens against the big-serving Arthur Rinderknech and is projected to meet the likes of Karen Khachanov or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals. Given his flawless start to 2026, he is the heavy favorite to reach Saturday’s showpiece.
Jannik Sinner (2nd Seed): Sinner faces a slightly more treacherous "minefield." Making his Doha debut, he starts against the tricky Tomas Machac. His side of the draw is littered with "banana skin" opponents, including the explosive Alexander Bublik and the resurgent Arthur Fils.
The Spoilers: Who Can Crash the Party?
While the tennis world is bracing for another chapter of the "Sincaraz" rivalry, several elite players are more than capable of tearing up the script:
| Player | Why they're a threat |
| Daniil Medvedev | The 2023 champion loves the slow, gritty hard courts of Doha. If he meets Alcaraz in the semis, his defensive masterclass could frustrate the Spaniard. |
| Andrey Rublev | The defending champion and a two-time winner in Doha (2020, 2025). Despite a recent dip in form, Rublev’s "heavy hitting" is perfectly suited for these conditions. |
| Alexander Bublik | The 3rd seed is the ultimate wildcard. Fresh off deep runs in Hong Kong and Rotterdam, his unpredictable style can unnerve even a player as composed as Sinner. |
| Jakub Mensik | Last year's finalist and a rising star. The 20-year-old proved he belongs at this level with a stunning run in 2025 and could be a quarterfinal hurdle for Sinner. |
A Tactical Chess Match
If the seeds hold, a Saturday night final between Alcaraz and Sinner would be their 17th professional meeting. While Alcaraz leads the overall head-to-head 10–6, Sinner won their most recent high-stakes clash at the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals.
The Doha courts are notoriously gritty, rewarding players who can transition from defense to offense quickly. Alcaraz’s variety and drop shots will be lethal here, but Sinner’s improved first serve and relentless baseline depth make him a formidable wall to break down.