The footballing world is holding its collective breath as the "Trial of the Century" nears its climax. Manchester City and the Premier League remain in a tense standoff, awaiting the final verdict from the independent commission regarding the 115 charges of alleged financial misconduct.
While a verdict has been delayed for over 14 months since the hearing concluded in December 2024, football finance experts—including Kieran Maguire—have begun to outline the "logical" consequences of a guilty verdict. Chief among them? A record-shattering 60-point deduction.
Why 60 Points? The Logic of Precedent
The figure isn't pulled from thin air. It is based on the math of previous Profit and Sustainability (PSR) breaches:
The Scale: Everton and Nottingham Forest received deductions of 6 and 4 points, respectively, for single offenses spanning three years.
The Calculation: The charges against Manchester City span nine seasons (2009–2018). Experts argue that if the Premier League wants to remain consistent, they must "add a zero" to previous penalties.
The Conclusion: A penalty in the range of 40 to 60 points is viewed as the only sporting sanction that fits the gravity of the 115 allegations.
Instant Relegation?
If a 60-point deduction were applied to the current 2025/26 season, the impact would be seismic.
Current Standings: With City currently battling at the top of the table on 56 points, a 60-point hit would immediately plummet them to -4 points.
The Consequence: This would leave the defending champions at the absolute bottom of the Premier League, roughly 30 points adrift of safety with only a handful of games remaining. It wouldn't just end their title defense; it would virtually guarantee relegation to the Championship.
Can They Be Relegated Further?
There has been wild speculation about City being expelled to League One or League Two. However, experts have clarified that:
EFL Independence: The Premier League does not have the authority to place a club into the EFL (English Football League) tiers.
The "Trapdoor": The only way City leaves the top flight is through a points deduction so severe that they finish in the bottom three, or if the Premier League votes to expel them entirely, leaving them as a club without a league until the EFL chooses to admit them.
The "Catastrophic" Timeline
The biggest fear for both the club and the league is the timing of the announcement. Richard Masters, CEO of the Premier League, recently dodged questions at the Business of Football Summit, refusing to provide a specific date.
Kieran Maguire warned that a verdict delivered in the final week of the season would be "catastrophic," potentially deciding the title race and the relegation battle in a courtroom rather than on the pitch.
The Boardroom Exodus
Beyond the pitch, a guilty verdict on "non-cooperation" or "corporate fraud" would likely lead to a total clearing of the decks at the Etihad. It is widely expected that the board of directors would be forced to resign, as they could no longer represent a shareholder club while proven to have defrauded the league.