The USMNT is set to face Turkey today, Thursday, June 25th, for Matchday 3 of Group D at the 2026 World Cup at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. With their ticket to the Round of 32 already officially secured, questions are rising on how the result of this match could impact the rest of the group.
A crushing 4-1 win against Paraguay in their tournament debut and a 2-0 victory over Australia have left the USMNT sitting alone at the top of the group with six points. While both the South American and Oceanic nations are tied with three points each, Turkey sits at the bottom of the group with zero, having already been eliminated from the competition.
The USMNT’s best-ever tournament run dates all the way back to the inaugural World Cup in 1930, where they captured a historic third-place finish. After a promising start featuring six goals scored and only one conceded in this 2026 edition, Mauricio Pochettino’s squad is looking to surpass that legendary milestone on home soil.
USMNT and Turkey locked into their positions regardless of the result
Interestingly, no matter what happens in today’s match between the USMNT and Turkey, the Americans will finish first in the group, while the Europeans cannot escape the bottom spot. This locked-in scenario is a direct result of the head-to-head tie-breaking criteria FIFA is prioritizing for this tournament.
As the standings look right now, the only teams capable of catching the USMNT at six points are Paraguay and Australia, who face each other tonight at 10 PM ET. However, even if one of those teams claims all three points to match the USMNT on points following an American loss, the U.S. holds the ultimate tie-breaker.
In past editions, overall goal difference served as the primary tie-breaking metric, forcing teams to focus heavily on running up the score or avoiding heavy defeats. Now, the regulations prioritize head-to-head results, looking strictly at the total number of points obtained in direct matches between the tied teams.
Because the USMNT already won its games against both Paraguay and Australia, they own the tie-breaker regardless of how many goals they might concede against Turkey. The exact same logic applies to the Turkish side, who will finish last even if they win today because they already lost their direct matchups against Australia and Paraguay.
Consequently, the only Group D match that will actually alter the final standings tonight is the Paraguay-Australia clash, as both nations fight directly to secure the second-place spot.
