The 2025/26 Premier League title race has reached a fever pitch. Following Manchester City’s critical 2–1 victory over Arsenal at the Etihad on Sunday, the gap at the top has vanished. Arsenal currently leads with 70 points from 33 games, but City sits just behind on 67 points with a game in hand.
With only a handful of fixtures remaining, the possibility of a "dead heat" is no longer just a mathematical curiosity—it’s a genuine reality. If the two giants finish the season inseparable, here are the tie-breaking rules that will decide the champion.
The Tie-Breaker Hierarchy: Deciding the Winner
If Arsenal and Manchester City are level on points after 38 games, the Premier League uses a strict hierarchy of criteria to crown the champion.
Goal Difference: This is the primary tie-breaker. As it stands, Arsenal holds a slight edge with +37 compared to City's +36.
Goals Scored: If the goal difference is identical, the team that has hit the back of the net more often throughout the season takes the trophy. Currently, City leads this metric with 65 goals to Arsenal's 63.
Head-to-Head Points: Should they remain tied, officials look specifically at the results between the two teams this season. Following a 1–1 draw at the Emirates and City’s 2–1 win today, Manchester City would win the title on this metric (4 points to Arsenal’s 1).
Head-to-Head Away Goals: If the points were equal (e.g., two draws), the team with the most away goals in their direct meetings would prevail.
The Play-Off: In the almost impossible event that the teams are still tied after all the above, a one-off play-off match would be scheduled at a neutral venue to decide the champion.
The Current Standings
| Rank | Team | P | GD | Pts | Remaining |
| 1 | Arsenal | 33 | +37 | 70 | 5 Games |
| 2 | Manchester City | 32 | +36 | 67 | 6 Games |
The "City Advantage": Why Today Changed Everything
Before today’s clash, Arsenal held a comfortable lead, but the 2–1 defeat handed the psychological and mathematical initiative to Pep Guardiola. Because City won the head-to-head battle across the two league fixtures, they effectively own the "third-level" tie-breaker.
Arsenal’s Path: Must hope City drop points in their game in hand (against Burnley) and maintain a superior goal difference.
City’s Path: If they win their remaining six games, the title is theirs. Even if they finish level on points and goals with Arsenal, their head-to-head record now acts as a safety net.
Remaining Fixtures: The Final Push
Arsenal's Run-In:
April 25: Newcastle (H)
May 2: Fulham (H)
May 10: West Ham (A)
TBD: Burnley (H)
May 24: Crystal Palace (A)
Man City's Run-In:
April 22: Burnley (A)
May 4: Everton (A)
Plus four more fixtures to be confirmed, including their FA Cup Semi-Final obligations.
Is a Play-Off Possible?
While technically possible, a play-off has never happened in Premier League history. For it to occur between Arsenal and City this year, they would need to finish with identical points, goal difference, and goals scored—and they would have had to draw both their head-to-head matches with the same scoreline.
Since City won today, the head-to-head rule almost certainly guarantees a winner will be found before a play-off is needed.
